Catavento publishes Factsheet #33 – What to expect from a super El Niño?

El Niño emerges as a significant source of physical and economic risk in 2026, intensifying extreme heat, droughts, floods and wildfires across regions of the world, against the backdrop of an already warmer planet. Its impacts extend far beyond weather conditions, affecting food production, trade infrastructure and energy systems, with implications for economic growth and business continuity. Previous super El Niño events reduced global GDP growth by around 1% during the event and by more than 5% cumulatively over the following three years.

El Niño can disrupt critical trade routes and commodities. The Panama Canal is already facing navigation restrictions, while low water levels on the Rhine River are limiting inland waterway transport in Europe. At the same time, in the energy sector, more severe heatwaves and droughts pose risks to both electricity supply and demand. In Brazil, impacts are highly regional, with drier and hotter conditions expected in the North and wetter conditions and excessive rainfall in the South and Southeast.